| Sunday, May 19, 2013 - Seattle NOOD Weather Forecast issued 19 MAY 2013 | 
Sailing Weather Service Forecast
Sponsored by North Sails & Southern Spars
2013 Sperry Top-Sider Seattle NOOD Regatta
Issued 0535 LT 19 MAY 2013 WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES: There are no active warnings or advisories posted for the sailing area. But, conditions can change quickly. Monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio on your VHF for the latest official warnings and advisories from The National Weather Service. FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback. When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks! SYNOPSIS: Mainly light winds are forecast for much of today. The best breeze of the day will likely build in from the mid-/late-afternoon, but even that is likely to be well under 10 knots peak. Yesterday’s front is a memory as this morning’s weather map shows the Pacific high pressure building strongly into the Gulf of Alaska and off the coast of Vancouver Island. This is producing a N’ly flow of cooler air into the region. Winds are very soft and poorly mixed this morning, with a light NNE wind off the eastern shore. This period of lighter breeze is expected to continue most of the morning. Around mid-day or early afternoon, some minor thermal effects are expected to the start mixing a little more gradient into the picture. This will also have the effect of backing the breeze more N’ly for the bulk of the racing. Winds will increase modestly to light-moderate strength this afternoon. CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mainly light and variable winds. A few stations along the eastern shore of the bay are report NNE winds around 3 knots. Satellite continues to show extensive cloud cover across the area. Radar is mainly clear, though there may be a few patches of drizzle or very light rain showers not caught by the radar at first this morning. FORECAST DISCUSSION: Light and variable to NE/NNE less than 5 knots at first. Patchy. Becoming NNE/N late morning and increase 3-7 knots. An additional right shift to N and build through the afternoon up to 10 knots is forecast through the afternoon. WEATHER: Morning clouds clearing to partly sunny conditions for much of the day. TEMPERATURE: Near 50F this morning, warming to low-60sF this afternoon. SEAS: Less than 1 ft through this morning. A slight build of chop is possible this afternoon, but still just around 1 ft. Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT) Mean Range Mean Range
0900 04 02-07 035 020-045
1000 05 03-07 035 015-045
1100 04 02-06 030 015-040
1200 05 03-09 025 010-040
1300 07 05-10 025 010-040
1400 08 06-10 020 010-035
1500 09 07-11 015 005-030
1600 09 07-11 020 005-035
1700 09 06-11 020 010-035
1800 08 07-10 025 010-040 HEDGE: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE 1) The models are in generally good agreement, but appear to be suggesting lighter winds than what I believe is the potential. I have hedge a little higher than the model consensus wind speeds for today. For direction, I stayed pretty close to consensus.
2) Conditions are expected to be quite patchy and unstable through about mid-day. Shifts will be random – perhaps slightly favoring the right with some flow off the Seattle shore at times.
3) This afternoon, winds build modestly and this should also come with a slight left shift and breezes firming up.
4) Assuming the wind builds as forecast this afternoon, I expect a relatively steady breeze, with some 5-10 degree oscillating shifts. Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
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| | Saturday, May 18, 2013 - Seattle NOOD Weather Forecast issued 18 MAY 2013 |
Sailing Weather Service Forecast
Sponsored by North Sails & Southern Spars
2013 Sperry Top-Sider Seattle NOOD Regatta
Issued 0500 LT 18 MAY 2013 WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES: There are no active warnings or advisories posted for the sailing area. But, conditions can change quickly. Monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio on your VHF for the latest official warnings and advisories from The National Weather Service. FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback. When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks! SYNOPSIS: A breezy and showery day is forecast as a frontal system approaches from the west. This morning’s weather map shows a low pressure off Vancouver Island with a cold front extending to the south-southwest of the low. The low will move to a position near Vancouver later this morning and then into southeastern British Columbia this evening. The cold front will move onto the WA coast around mid-day, and then through Puget Sound mid-afternoon or so. This morning, a firm S/SSE gradient is blowing across The Sound. This is a geographically channeled breeze, likely to increase late morning through early afternoon as the front approaches. Once the front moves east, the gradient veers and this relaxes the channeling effect with easing winds expected on the course area. Winds will likely ease from north to south. The gradient may veer far enough right later this afternoon to allow a new wind to fill from the Straits of Juan de Fuca south into Puget Sound and toward the race area. CURRENT CONDITIONS: SSE to S winds 7-14 knots over the course area this morning. Winds lighter in on the shore and a little more left-shifted. Stronger and more right-shifted mid-Sound. Breeze appears to have been building gradually last few hours. Satellite shows extensive cloud ahead of the cold front moving onshore. Heavier rain has been moving in off the Pacific, and working its way across the Olympic Range. However, the Olympic Range rain shadow is working a bit and keeping things quieter over the racing area. FORECAST DISCUSSION: Generally S’ly wind 11-16 this morning, increasing to 14-18 and possibly close to 20 at times over the open waters of the sound mid-day/early afternoon. A slight right trend toward SSW is possible. After about 1500, winds may ease from north to south and hints or more right-shifted breeze possible. Chance of a shift and fill from the N in the late AM. WEATHER: Mainly overcast. A few scattered showers this morning. Risk of showers increases through the late morning through early afternoon. From mid- or late-afternoon some decreasing clouds and showers likely ending. TEMPERATURE: Low-/mid-50sF this morning, warming to low-60sF this afternoon. SEAS: Choppy 2-3 ft on the open sound, but 1-2 ft in protected waters. Seas roughest where wind opposes tide. Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT) Mean Range Mean Range
0900 14 11-17 155 140-170
1000 16 14-18 155 140-170
1100 16 14-20 160 145-175
1200 16 13-18 160 145-175
1300 15 12-17 165 150-180
1400 13 11-15 175 155-190
1500 08 06-10 185 165-200
1600 04 02-06 Variable
1700 05 02-08 To 340
1800 08 05-10 345 325-005 HEDGE: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE 1) This is a tricky forecast, especially for the latter half of the afternoon. The majority of the models hold the wind from the S most of the day, with a later afternoon trend to the W. However, the normal channeling effects of the Sound will be at play here, so have held the wind more S’ly through mid-afternoon.
2) Uncertainty arises after the front moves through. I have installed a more dramatic shift to the N, accounting for cooler, shallow, channeled flow filling down the bay either from rain outflow and/or new gradient pressure. There will be a calm zone transition between these two breezes.
3) Watch for any rain cells to have a significant impact on the local wind. Breeze will tend to flow out of any raining clouds and winds will shift accordingly. There may be brief gusts of strong breeze ahead of rain, followed by extended lulls following passage of the cell.
4) Again, look for generally stronger, more right-shifted breeze out toward the center of the sound. Close to the Seattle shore, winds will tend to be lighter, less stable and more left. ***************************************************************
OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY (19 May 2013)
Today’s low pressure and front move east to the Rocky Mountains while the pacific high pressure build strongly off the coast. Building N’ly gradient is expected over the area. Morning cool temperatures will keep the gradient from mixing down and make for lighter winds morning through early afternoon. Some building breeze is expected to develop early afternoon and last through the evening. Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT) Mean Range Mean Range
0800 02 00-04 Variable
1000 05 02-07 010 350-025
1200 06 04-08 360 345-015
1400 10 07-12 355 340-010
1600 11 08-13 350 340-010
1800 09 07-11 355 340-010 SEAS: Generally 1 ft or less. WEATHER: Mostly cloudy with scattered morning showers. Clearing to partly cloudy and dry in the afternoon. Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
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| | Friday, May 17, 2013 - Seattle NOOD Weather Forecast issued 17 MAY 2013 |
Sailing Weather Service Forecast
Sponsored by North Sails & Southern Spars
2013 Sperry Top-Sider Seattle NOOD Regatta
Issued 0630 LT 17 MAY 2013 WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES: There are no active warnings or advisories posted for the sailing area. However, conditions can change quickly. Monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio on your VHF for the latest official warnings and advisories from The National Weather Service. FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback. When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks! SYNOPSIS: Two upper level troughs are approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. The first, weaker trough is expected to influence the area today while the second, stronger trough will be in the area for tomorrow. The first trough will slowly wash out today as it moves onshore, with the second trough becoming influential later today and into tomorrow. Some unsettled weather is expected today with rain showers possible. There is a minor low pressure circulation reflection of the upper trough off the WA coast supporting light-moderate SE/S winds over the sailing area this morning. Winds are forecast to accelerated and veer slightly through the morning, with moderate winds predicted on course for much of the afternoon. Some variability in wind speed and direction should be expected around any rain cells that pass over or close to the sailing area. CURRENT CONDITIONS: Generally 8 to 14 knots of SSE/S wind reported around the sailing area this morning. It is lighter and more left onshore. Best breeze is over the mid-sound, and it has been building over the last few hours. Satellite confirms overcast conditions. Radar shows a few scattered, mostly light showers in the area. Showers are generally moving from SSE toward NNW. FORECAST DISCUSSION: SE/SSE early this morning 6-12 knots. Generally Veering SSE/S through the morning and increasing to 10-15 knots. Chance of a few stronger puffs at times – especially ahead of any showers. Holding generally SSE/S 10-14 through the afternoon, though pressure will be unsteady. Easing winds expected later afternoon. WEATHER: Mainly cloudy. Good chance of some rain showers today – mainly light in intensity. Best chance for rain will be early this morning and again from about mid-day onward. However can’t rule out a shower almost any time. TEMPERATURE: Cool low-50sF this morning warming to the low-60sF this afternoon. SEAS: Generally around 1 ft this morning increasing to 1-3 ft mid-sound this afternoon. Roughest when wind opposes tide. Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT) Mean Range Mean Range
0900 11 07-13 140 120-155
1000 12 09-15 150 130-165
1100 12 09-15 155 135-170
1200 13 10-15 160 140-170 …more left on the Seattle shore
1300 13 11-15 165 145-175
1400 13 11-15 165 150-175
1500 12 10-15 165 150-175
1600 12 10-14 160 150-175
1700 12 10-14 160 145-175
1800 12 09-14 160 145-175 HEDGE: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE 1) The models are in good agreement this morning and match early morning observations well. There is some spread in wind speed today, with some forecasts holding wind speeds under 10 knots while others are stronger.
2) Best pressure will be out in the mid-sound today with lighter wind against the Seattle shore. Also, watch for a slight left shift in on the shore side of the race course. This will likely be a permanent feature – even with any persistent shifts of the average direction.
3) I have favored more breezy model solutions in developing the forecast table. However, you should be prepared for the possibility of lighter and more variable winds in the event the forecast build is slower or fails to materialize as predicted.
4) Showers will have a significant impact on the winds. Rain cells are expected to move from the SE/SSE toward the NW/NNW. Watch for short-lift pressure increases ahead of any rain cells, and possible easing behind. Also, feel that the rain will tend to favor the Seattle side of the sound today. If so, outflow from rain cells will tend to back the wind to the left as they move past. ***************************************************************
OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY (18 May 2013)
A sharp upper trough with surface cold front will be moving toward the coast. This will hold unsettled weather and moderate SE/S winds in place. Winds are likely to build from today, especially in the morning. The front should hold west of the area through the sailing day. There is a small risk of it arriving earlier with a more substantial right shift at the end of the day. Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT) Mean Range Mean Range
0800 16 13-20 155 135-170
1000 18 14-21 155 135-170
1200 17 14-20 160 145-175
1400 16 13-20 160 140-180
1600 16 13-19 165 145-180
1800 12 10-16 180 160-195 SEAS: Moderately rough 2-3 ft. WEATHER: Cloudy with periods of showers and/or steady rain likely. Some heavier squalls are possible in the early to mid-afternoon. ***************************************************************
OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY (19 MAY 2013)
High pressure builds into the coast following an overnight frontal passage. Clearing conditions with a NW gradient veering N with time. WIND: NW 8-14 in the morning, veering N and easing 6-10 knots in the afternoon. WEATHER: Morning clouds and showers clearing to partly cloudy conditions. Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
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| | Sunday, May 05, 2013 - Annapolis NOOD Weather Forecast issued 05 MAY 2013 |
Sailing Weather Service Forecast
Sponsored by North Sails & Southern Spars
2013 Sperry Top-Sider Annapolis NOOD Regatta
Issued 0650 LT 05 MAY 2013 WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY is posted for the sailing area. Conditions can change quickly. Monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio on your VHF for the latest official warnings and advisories from The National Weather Service. FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback. When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks! SYNOPSIS: Yesterday was somewhat different from forecast, with much more N’ly component in the breeze than expected. Almost akin to a drainage wind flowing down the Chesapeake, cool air moving in from the north/northeast kept the breeze shallow and therefore following the bay axis more directly. Also, there was less sun as cloud spread over the area from the south and this prevented the expected mixing of more right-shifted air from aloft down to the surface. As a result, winds were lighter and more left shifted until later afternoon when a fresh ESE breeze filled in across the DelMarVa from the Atlantic. For today, the high pressure ridge which has provided good weather conditions for this year’s Annapolis NOOD looks set to remain in place one more day. The ridge will finally start to relax to the east today as a low pressure over the southeastern US starts to gain some influence, however any significant impact of this low beyond some additional high cloud cover is expected to remain well to the south today. As the ridge shifts east and the low begins to expand north, the gradient starts to veer from NE/ENE this morning to ENE/E this afternoon and possibly E/ESE this evening. Winds will be moderate this morning with a few fresh gusts. A gradual easing trends is expected from about mid-day through mid-afternoon, mainly associated with veering breeze. Conditions will main fine and dry today. CURRENT CONDITIONS: Reported winds are NE and ENE around 11-17 knots across the sailing area this morning. Winds are lighter (under 10) onshore where overnight cooling has decoupled winds from the surface. Winds have been building and slightly veering over the last hour or two. The satellite shows broken low cloud over the area, but this has been breaking up. High cloud associated with low pressure over the southeastern US is confined south and west of VA. The radar is clear of precipitation. FORECAST DISCUSSION: Moderate ENE at 14-18 with some gusts upwards of 20 this morning. Winds veer ENE/E and ease slightly around mid-day to 12-16. Chance of some lighter patches through mid-day. Then becoming ENE/E 13-17 through much of the afternoon. Chance of a late shift veering ESE. WEATHER: Mostly to partly cloudy this morning clearing to mainly sunny conditions later this morning through early afternoon. This afternoon, some middle and high cloud associated with the low to the south will start to increase over the area. Cumulus may develop through the day, but nothing will attain a potential to produce showers. TEMPERATURE: Cool mid-/upper-40sF this morning warming to lower-60sF this afternoon. SEAS: Mainly 1-3 ft. Roughest on open waters and where wind opposes tide. Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT) Mean Range Mean Range
0900 15 13-18 070 055-085 …some stronger gusts
1000 15 12-17 075 060-090
1100 14 11-16 080 065-090 …slight right trend
1200 13 10-14 080 065-090
1300 13 11-15 085 070-095
1400 14 12-16 085 070-100
1500 14 12-17 090 075-100
1600 14 12-16 090 075-105 …watch for more easing and more right trend late PM
1700 13 10-18 095 080-105
1800 12 09-17 100 080-110 HEDGE: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE 1) The models are in reasonably good agreement on forecast trends for direction today. Most models either hold the wind speeds steady late morning through mid-afternoon OR show a gradual easing trends. Have opted to hold winds more or less steady, except do show a slight thermal easing late morning to early afternoon.
2) The forecast table is a model consensus for direction. For wind speed, hedged to favor the windier models for the afternoon.
3) Wind character will be gusty and a bit unstable today. There isn’t a favored directional shift for puffs and lulls, other than mid-/late-afternoon when right shifts are more likely to be associated with easing pressure.
4) The risk of lighter more left winds (like yesterday) appears less today. Winds are stronger and more mixed across the Chesapeake this morning. However, if winds are more left than forecast by late morning, then watch for a similar trend to yesterday.
5) A bit less cloud today as the high cloud that was over the yesterday has relaxed back to the southeast. However watch for a new layer of high cloud to overspread the area this afternoon from the south. If this occurs, mixing could be tamped down which may lead to lighter winds than forecast. Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
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| | Saturday, May 04, 2013 - Annapolis NOOD Weather Forecast issued 04 MAY 2013 |
Sailing Weather Service Forecast
Sponsored by North Sails & Southern Spars
2013 Sperry Top-Sider Annapolis NOOD Regatta
Issued 0650 LT 04 MAY 2013 WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY is posted until 1000 EDT this morning. Conditions can change quickly. Monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio on your VHF for the latest official warnings and advisories from The National Weather Service. FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback. When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks! SYNOPSIS: Winds speeds were a bit lighter than expected yesterday. With similar or slightly weaker gradient trends forecast for today, we can expect similar winds on the racing area. On the weather map, cool high pressure continues nearly stationary over New England this morning. A ridge extends south-southwest from this high to the mid-Atlantic region this morning. The axis of the ridge is west of Annapolis, therefore NE gradients are in place at mostly moderate strength this morning. As the day progresses, the ridge is forecast to weaken slightly and shift a little east, but for all intends and purposes, the pattern is nearly static. Low pressure over the southern Mississippi River valley and FL will start to consolidate later today and tomorrow over the southeastern US. For now though, it appears the ridge will protect Annapolis from any direct impact from this developing low pressure until after the weekend. However, some high cloud associated with this low will start to overspread the area at times today. Winds are once again light and variable over the land this morning thanks to cooling overnight which decoupled the gradient flow from the surface. On the Chesapeake, NE gradient winds have persisted overnight blowing light-moderate and quite steady. With mainly sunny skies forecast this morning, the land will heat and allow gradient to mix more evenly between the Chesapeake waters and adjacent land areas through this morning. CURRENT CONDITIONS: Over the bay, generally NNE/NE 8-13 knots. Winds have been steady overnight. Onshore, lighter NE winds around 5 knots. Satellite shows mainly clear skies overhead. An area of thin high cloud is just south of the area and making some gradual progress north. The radar is clear of any precipitation. FORECAST DISCUSSION: NE 9-14 this morning except a little lighter at first on the Severn River. Filling or evenly to NE/ENE 10-15 through late morning. Chance of a brief easing period mid-day 9-13 knots and veering ENE. Then becoming ENE/E increasing to 12-16 through the afternoon. Some local gusts to 20 knots are possible, mainly through late morning and again mid-/late-afternoon. WEATHER: Mainly sunny with seasonably cool temperatures. Some minor scattered cumulus clouds may develop and pass over the area from time to time. Areas of thin high cloud will overspread the area from the south at times. TEMPERATURE: Cool near 50F this morning warming to the mid-60sF this afternoon. SEAS: 1-2 ft this morning increasing to 2-3 ft. Roughest when wind opposes tide. Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT) Mean Range Mean Range
0900 11 08-14 050 035-065 …building with AM Heating
1000 13 11-15 050 040-065
1100 12 10-14 055 045-070
1200 11 09-14 060 050-075 …some easing; watch for right trend
1300 12 10-15 070 055-085
1400 13 11-16 075 060-090
1500 14 12-18 080 065-090 …building
1600 15 12-17 085 070-095
1700 15 13-18 090 075-100
1800 15 13-17 090 075-100 HEDGE: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE 1) The models are in excellent agreement today and I have no reason to stray significantly from them. I have hedged the forecast table 1-2 knots higher than consensus, slightly favoring a windier solution for the day – especially mid-/late-afternoon.
2) Some gusts to 20 are possible this morning and again mid-/late-afternoon.
3) Initial morning build will likely be at its most left-shifted. Beginning late morning, watch for a right trend as the breeze mixes through a deeper layer and brings more right-shifted momentum from aloft to the surface.
4) Haven’t considered any significant thermal input into the forecast. Favorable mixing conditions should allow stronger gradient to fill down to the surface. However, if the mid-day breeze is lighter than forecast, then watch for a more aggressive right trend through the afternoon toward the ESE. This would likely be due to thermal effect.
5) Some puffs of pressure may mix more aggressively on the eastern shore. These will tend to move downwind across the Chesapeake and toward the sailing areas.
6) Especially this morning through early afternoon, gusts are likely to be right shifts and lulls left shifts. During the afternoon, a better mix will make puff/lull behavior more random.
7) Although the forecast table shows a persistent right trend, most successful strategies today will favor sailing for wind speed and current, rather than looking for any specific direction trend. ***************************************************************
OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY (05 May 2013)
The high pressure ridge will still be in place along the mid-Atlantic coast, but it will be slowly weakening. Low pressure developing over the southeastern US will start to have a minor influence by veering the gradient right. Also, cloud cover may increase – though mainly in the form of high cirrus cloud. This may limit the heating slightly. The gradient will be strongest and most left-shifted in the morning. During the afternoon, a combination of easing/veering gradient and some thermal effects will tend to ease winds with time. Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT) Mean Range Mean Range
0800 11 08-14 045 030-060
1000 14 11-16 050 035-065
1200 11 09-14 055 040-075
1400 10 08-12 080 065-095
1600 09 07-11 090 075-100
1800 08 06-11 100 085-110 SEAS: 1-2 ft. WEATHER: Mainly sunny in the morning. Some increasing high cloud cover is likely through the day. Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
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| | Friday, May 03, 2013 - Annapolis NOOD Weather Forecast issued 03 MAY 2013 |
Sailing Weather Service Forecast
Sponsored by North Sails & Southern Spars
2013 Sperry Top-Sider Annapolis NOOD Regatta
Issued 0600 LT 03 MAY 2013 WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY for strong winds is posted for the sailing area. Conditions can change quickly. Monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio on your VHF for the latest official warnings and advisories from The National Weather Service. FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback. When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks! SYNOPSIS: This morning’s weather map is very favorable for mostly moderate winds on the race courses today. There may be some fresh gusts from time to time. High pressure over the Gulf of St Lawrence extends a ridge southwest along the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts to the Carolinas this morning. There is a moderate ENE gradient around the ridge and over the Annapolis area that will be the primary source for winds on the race course today. Thermal conditions are not expected to play a big role, but may cause the breeze to veer somewhat from late morning into the afternoon. Winds are lighter at first this morning. Overnight cooling decouples the gradient wind from the surface, causing winds to ease overnight. As the sun warms land areas this morning, mixing will allow the gradient to reach the surface, with building winds mid-/late-morning. The breeze may also become gusty during this time. Moderate to frsh winds hold through much of the afternoon. Some moderating/easing conditions are possible mid-/late-afternoon as the wind veers E/ESE. CURRENT CONDITIONS: Generally ENE or E across the bay 10-15 knots. Winds have been relatively steady the last few hours. It is much lighter onshore with more variable wind direction under 5 knots. Satellite shows some scattered high cloud, otherwise mainly clear conditions this morning. The radar is clear of any precipitation. FORECAST DISCUSSION: ENE/E 10-15 this early this morning (lighter onshore). Winds tending E/ESE and increase to 15-20 through late morning and mid-day. Some gusts to 20-25 are possible by mid-day. Winds may veer E/ESE early to mid-afternoon, with some moderation in speed 14-18, though still some stronger gusts 20+ possible. Winds increasing again later afternoon 15-20 and likely backing E/ENE toward evening. WEATHER: Mainly sunny with seasonably cool temperatures. Some scattered cumulus clouds may develop and pass over the area from time to time. TEMPERATURE: Cool near 50F this morning warming to the low-60sF this afternoon. SEAS: 1-2 ft this morning increasing to 2-3 ft. Roughest when wind opposes tide. Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT) Mean Range Mean Range
0900 14 11-17 080 070-095
1000 16 13-18 080 070-095 …building
1100 17 15-20 085 075-100 …gusts 20+ possible
1200 18 16-21 090 080-100 …slight right trend
1300 17 15-20 090 080-105
1400 16 14-19 095 085-110 …becoming more puffy and unstable
1500 15 13-18 100 085-110
1600 16 14-18 095 085-105 …gusting 20+ continuing
1700 17 15-19 095 085-105
1800 17 15-20 090 080-100 HEDGE: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE 1) The models are in very good agreement on both average wind speed and trends. In fact, all models are within about 3-4 knots of each other and 10-15 degrees on direction. The main uncertainty is in peak wind speed, with some predicting mid-teens while others show low 20s. Have hedged toward the windier solutions in the forecast table.
2) Expect building breeze with a slight right trend this morning. By late morning, stronger puffs will be moving off the east shore and across the bay toward the western shore. These should be quite visible on the water.
3) Watch for some turbulent puffs and lulls at times, especially early afternoon. Generally speaking lulls should be left shifts and puffs right shifts (mixing stronger momentum from aloft to the surface).
4) Some minor cumulus developing on the eastern shore may move west toward the course area in the afternoon. If any cumulus clouds that are able to hold together across the Chesapeake and into the course area, the clouds will cause winds to ease as they approach. Once the cumulus pass, a puffy period of slightly left-shifted breeze can be expected. ***************************************************************
OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY (04 May 2013)
The high pressure ridge is expected to remain over the mid-Atlantic, though weakening somewhat. This will weaken the gradient and easing winds from the peaks expected today. The ridge will maintain fair and cool weather today. After some light and variable winds early in the morning, mixing will build winds light-moderate through the late morning and mid-day. Under sunny and slightly warmer conditions, thermal effects are likely to play a bigger role, veering winds from NE/ENE in the morning the E in the afternoon. The thermal may also cause winds to ease a little bit in the afternoon, as the E’ly flow is unfavorable for sea breeze building on the bay. Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT) Mean Range Mean Range
0800 09 07-14 050 035-065
1000 14 11-17 055 040-070
1200 11 09-14 080 060-090
1400 13 11-15 090 075-100
1600 12 10-15 085 070-100
1800 12 10-14 080 070-095 SEAS: 1-3 ft. WEATHER: Continued mostly sunny except for a few cumulus clouds forming, mainly over land areas. ***************************************************************
OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY (05 MAY 2013)
High pressure continues over New England with a ridge to the south-southwest over the mid-Atlantic. The ridge will start to weaken and shift a little east as low pressure develops over the southeastern US. NE gradient winds will continue, but a veering and easing trend is expected to develop in the afternoon, becoming E and possibly SE by evening. WIND: Mainly NE in the morning 5-10 increasing 10-15 for a time. Then easing and veering to E 7-12 for the afternoon. WEATHER: Mainly sunny in the morning, then increasing clouds through the day. Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
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